Research

Publication

• “Industrialization and Pollution: The Long-Term Impact of Early-Life Exposure on Human Capital Formation.” January 2025, Journal of Public Economics. Manuscript
  Abstract

  Air quality in developing countries is often much worse than in developed economies, yet evidence on the long-term human capital effects of air pollution in these settings is limited. This paper uses a cohort difference-in-differences approach to examine the impact of early-life exposure to air pollution during China's 1950s industrialization on human capital formation. It assumes that economic opportunities linked to industrial plants impact upwind and downwind counties similarly within a 30-mile radius. The results indicate that moving from the 25th to 75th percentile of exposure reduces children's education by approximately 0.11 years. This effect size is notably larger than the impacts of three other factors affecting educational attainment in both China and the United States.

Working Papers

• “Deciding to Participate: The Impact of Air Pollution on Civic Engagement in China”
  Abstract

  Online engagement with government is increasingly common in the digital age, yet the factors driving such civic activity remain poorly understood. This paper uses an instrumental variable (IV) strategy to examine whether air pollution influences online engagement with the government, measured by message volume on an official platform in China. I find that a 10 ug/m³ increase in weekly average PM_2.5 results in a 15.9% surge in messages. During periods of higher pollution, people are more likely to voice complaints, seek assistance, make inquiries, and offer suggestions. Three mechanisms help explain this response: (1) pollution shifts the perceived benefits of civic engagement, (2) it intensifies discontent linked to economic disparities, and (3) it heightens awareness of daily life problems. Sentiment analysis using large language models (LLMs) and dictionary-based tools shows that air pollution tends to worsen emotional well-being, consistent with existing literature, although the effect is statistically insignificant in most cases. Understanding these dynamics is crucial, as timely responses to public concerns can help prevent more serious outcomes.
• “Powering the Future: The Long-Term Human Capital Effects of Rural Electrification” (Job Market Paper) Manuscript
  Abstract

  This paper examines how exposure to rural electrification during middle childhood affected long-term human capital in 1990s China. Unlike most studies that focus on grid connection, this paper emphasizes electricity affordability. I develop a model of human capital investment where rural electrification is an adult-labor-biased technical change. The model predicts a strong income effect and a negligible substitution effect, resulting in increased schooling for children. I test this empirically using a cohort difference-in-differences design, leveraging variation in electricity price reductions across counties. I find that middle childhood exposure to lower electricity prices significantly increases educational attainment, school completion, and adult cognitive scores. Further analysis identifies increased agricultural productivity as a key mechanism, consistent with the model. The focus on middle childhood reflects children's limited substitutability for adult laborers at this age. At older ages, children provide labor that closely resembles that of adults, and a strong substitution effect may offset the income effect—evidence supports this prediction. China's late-1990s experience offers insights for rural electrification efforts in many developing countries today.

Selected Works in Progress

• “Text to Data: A Machine Learning Approach to Historical Chinese Documents,” with Wolfgang Keller, Carol H. Shiue, and Sen Yan

• “Environmental Regulation and Within-Firm Adjustments in Multi-Process Manufacturing,” with Feitao Jiang and Yingjun Su