Research

“Powering the Future: The Long-Term Human Capital Effects of Rural Electrification” Manuscript
Abstract
This paper examines how rural electrification during middle childhood affected long-term human capital in 1990s China. Unlike most studies that focus on grid connection, my paper emphasizes electricity affordability. I develop a simple model of human capital investment in which electrification is an adult-labor-biased technical change in agriculture. Because children in middle childhood are poor substitutes for adult laborers in farm work, the productivity shock has little impact on their opportunity cost of schooling. The model therefore predicts a strong income effect and a negligible substitution effect, leading to higher schooling for children. I test this empirically using a cohort difference-in-differences design, leveraging variation in electricity price reductions across counties. I find that lower electricity prices in middle childhood significantly increase educational attainment and later adult cognitive scores. Increased agricultural productivity is identified as one mechanism, consistent with the model. This paper also highlights why older children are not significantly affected. China's late-1990s experience offers insights for rural electrification efforts in many developing countries today.

“Industrialization and Pollution: The Long-Term Impact of Early-Life Exposure on Human Capital Formation.” January 2025, Journal of Public Economics. Manuscript
Abstract
Air quality in developing countries is often much worse than in developed economies, yet evidence on the long-term human capital effects of air pollution in these settings is limited. This paper uses a cohort difference-in-differences approach to examine the impact of early-life exposure to air pollution during China's 1950s industrialization on human capital formation. It assumes that economic opportunities linked to industrial plants impact upwind and downwind counties similarly within a 30-mile radius. The results indicate that moving from the 25th to 75th percentile of exposure reduces children's education by approximately 0.11 years. This effect size is notably larger than the impacts of three other factors affecting educational attainment in both China and the United States.

“Deciding to Participate: The Impact of Air Pollution on Civic Engagement in China” (draft available upon request)
Abstract
Online engagement with government is increasingly common in the digital age, yet the factors driving such civic activity remain poorly understood. This paper uses an instrumental variable (IV) strategy to examine whether air pollution influences online engagement with the government, measured by message volume on an official platform in China. I find that a 10 ug/m³ increase in weekly average PM_2.5 results in a 15.9% surge in messages. During periods of higher pollution, people are more likely to voice complaints, seek assistance, make inquiries, and offer suggestions. Three mechanisms help explain this response: (1) pollution shifts the perceived benefits of civic engagement, (2) it intensifies discontent linked to economic disparities, and (3) it heightens awareness of daily life problems. Sentiment analysis using large language models (LLMs) and dictionary-based tools shows that air pollution tends to worsen emotional well-being, consistent with existing literature, although the effect is statistically insignificant in most cases. Understanding these dynamics is crucial, as timely responses to public concerns can help prevent more serious outcomes.

“Text to Data: A Machine Learning Approach to Historical Chinese Documents,” with Wolfgang Keller, Carol H. Shiue, and Sen Yan
“Environmental Regulation and Within-Firm Adjustments in Multi-Process Manufacturing,” with Feitao Jiang and Yingjun Su